The results of the Taiwan county and city mayor elections were basically as expected, roughly divided along the Zhuoshui River. The people in the south, mainly from the Minnan ethnic group, tend to lean towards the green camp (although Kinmen, although part of the Minnan ethnic group, is administratively under Fujian Province and the people there tend to lean towards the blue camp). The people in the north, mainly from the Hakka and mainland provinces, tend to lean towards the south. One special case in the Kuomintang (KMT) party was Han Kuo-yu winning the mayoral election in Kaohsiung. However, at that time, he did not seize the opportunity to give back to the people of Kaohsiung who trusted him, but instead rushed to use it as a springboard for the presidential election, which ultimately led to his defeat.
To understand the local political game between the blue and green camps, people from mainland China sometimes view it through a filter, and that filter is the stance on reunification or independence. In fact, to understand it from a local perspective, it can be roughly understood from a left-right perspective, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leaning left and the KMT leaning right. From the perspective of the political game between the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States, it is easier to understand.
As a general experience, the left focuses on ideology, while the right focuses on business and industry. For example, in the United States, the left controls almost all media outlets, while the right has very few places to voice their opinions. However, the interesting thing is that when there is only one place to speak, all the right-wing supporters gather there (the Fox News Channel, which is called the "Fox Gossip Channel" in Chinese, is like calling a prostitute "Miss," it's the same meaning). As a result, the number of people watching a single right-wing media outlet is greater than that of any single left-wing media outlet, although if you add up all the left-wing media outlets, they will definitely outnumber them.
The right focuses on the military and police, and in the United States, the military and police are generally pro-right. Even when the Democratic Party is in power, most of the time they will choose a Republican as the Secretary of Defense, and occasionally they will find a Democrat who is more acceptable to Republicans. Of course, in terms of the economy, the current chairman of the Federal Reserve is also a Republican. As for the Treasury Department, they need to reach a consensus on Wall Street. For example, the Democrat chosen as the Secretary is Rubin, and the Republican chosen as the Secretary is Paulson. The idea on Wall Street is simple: it doesn't matter what the left or right does, just don't delay us from making money.
In this way, we can understand the Green Party and the Blue Party in Taiwan. Basically, most of Taiwan's media outlets are pro-green, and there is probably only one pro-blue outlet, Zhongtian. However, Taiwan's military and police, and even more broadly, the military and public servants, are definitely pro-blue. The Blue Party has a friendly policy towards the business community and rewards journalists, so they naturally have better relations with the business community and have more political resources in governance and management.
The Green Party started with propaganda and relies on the populist power of the masses, so their slogans are more appealing, especially to young people who are ignorant of the world. However, after winning the election and coming to power, their behavior of grabbing money and resources is quite ugly, which has actually disgusted a group of idealistic young people. From the first term of Tsai Ing-wen, because of the numerous problems in governing the island (although economically, due to the symbiotic relationship with the mainland, it is actually not bad), the main political operation was summed up in one phrase: "resist China, protect Taiwan," and the corresponding operation was the political game in Hong Kong.
The main focus of this "resist China, protect Taiwan" is to give up Taiwan's previous balancing act between the mainland and the United States, which is essentially the same as Abe's "leopard change" theory, using the methods adopted by Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and others to slide back and forth and gain the maximum benefit. For example, during Ma Ying-jeou's time, he took a consistent position with the mainland on the Diaoyu Islands issue, which scared Japan into immediately offering fishing rights agreements to gain practical benefits. During Tsai Ing-wen's time, she relied solely on Japan, and as a result, Taiwanese fishermen were constantly humiliated by the Japanese using high-pressure water hoses at sea. Of course, these fishermen are from the north and are not the basic voter base, right?
This "resist China, protect Taiwan" is what the mainland criticizes as "leaning on the US for independence," which coincides with certain forces within the United States using Taiwan to contain China, which has led to Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan and the subsequent military exercises around the island. The result is that whether resisting China can truly protect Taiwan has become a big question among the Taiwanese people.
Of course, the nine-in-one elections do not involve cross-strait relations, but they can be seen as a warm-up for the 2024 elections. After Tsai Ing-wen resigned as the chairperson of the DPP, it is clear that she wants to see how "Taiwan independence political worker" Lai Ching-te establishes his position through various maneuvers, and how he competes for the position of party chairperson with other internal figures, such as Chen Chien-jen, who is also a doctor. Generally, politicians in Taiwan who hold pro-independence ideas or rely on deep-green supporters usually change their stance from "resist China, protect Taiwan" to "friendly to China, protect Taiwan," "understand China, protect Taiwan," "support China, protect Taiwan," or even "love China, love Taiwan," as Lai Ching-te himself has used.
However, the primary elections in Taiwan are not held in Taiwan, but in Washington, D.C., United States. Regardless of whether it is the blue or green camp, whoever sends their representatives must come to Washington for a job interview, and if they fail, they are not qualified to run.
Another recent development is the relocation of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to Phoenix, Arizona in the United States. How should I put it, TSMC's advanced processes mainly include 5nm, 7nm, and future 3nm. TSMC's major customers for advanced processes were originally two countries, the United States and China. Now, the first step taken by the United States is to prohibit TSMC from supplying customers in mainland China, leaving only one customer, the United States. The second step is for the United States to start building advanced process factories for TSMC and have American customers, such as Apple, place orders at the American factories instead of the Taiwanese ones.
Of course, the cost of the American factories is likely to be higher than that of the Taiwanese factories. According to the management practices of Taiwanese factories, American employees will probably slack off and leave on time, while Taiwanese immigrants will work overtime. In the end, the cost will be 40-60% higher. So, Apple will give a 20% premium for orders placed in the United States, the U.S. government will subsidize part of the cost, and TSMC will reduce part of its profit to complete this capacity transition.
So, what do you think the third step will be? It is possible that the United States and China will reach a trade agreement, and TSMC's American factory will be approved to ship to China, completely killing off TSMC's Taiwanese factory.